RBA rates · March 2025
The hike cycle is probably over. The cut cycle hasn’t started.
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Not exciting
Rates held again. Unless you’re on a variable mortgage or a fixed term ending soon, this one can wait.
In a nutshell: The Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.10% — the second consecutive hold after eleven rate rises since 2022. Governor Michele Bullock said the board remains cautious on inflation. The next meeting is in May.
Showing framed angles.
Spin Unspin
What they’re saying
Michele Bullock is the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia — the independent body that sets the official cash rate. Her language is deliberately uncommitted, keeping future options open while signalling limited appetite for further hikes.
Standard political capture of a neutral decision. The government has no direct influence over RBA decisions — that independence is the point. A hold is easier to claim credit for than a rise.
An accurate hardship framing — eleven consecutive rate rises have genuinely squeezed mortgage holders. But “too little, too late” implies the RBA should have acted differently, which requires a policy alternative the opposition hasn’t stated.
Futures market pricing reflects traders’ bets, not RBA guidance. The two are routinely conflated. Markets guess; the RBA decides based on incoming data.
Do I care?
Check what your lender is actually charging — not just the RBA rate. Lenders add a margin on top and are slow to pass on cuts. Know your actual number.
Model what repayments look like at current variable rates before your term ends. Not an emergency — just not something to discover at settlement.
Otherwise, nope.
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