Economy · 11 August 2026

RBA holds at 4.35% but warns another hike remains possible

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Probably worth doing something about

Directly affects every Australian mortgage holder, renter, property buyer and saver. Three hikes earlier in 2026 have already cut borrowing power; another is not ruled out.

In a nutshell: The RBA left the cash rate at 4.35% at its 11 August meeting — a second consecutive hold after three hikes in the first half of 2026. Governor Michele Bullock said inflation remains too high and the board is not ready to declare victory. Markets price roughly a 40–63% chance of one more hike before year-end. Big-four bank economists largely expect the cycle is done, but disagree on when cuts will arrive — most point to mid-2027.

Spin Unspin

What they’re saying

RBA emphasis is on upside inflation risk; less prominent is that housing has weakened faster than forecast, which argues against further tightening.

Lender data shows concrete household impact; omits that some fixed-rate borrowers are yet to roll off lower rates and face a cliff later this year.

Decision confirmed by RBA.gov.au. Probability estimates vary between sources (40–63%); use as a range, not a forecast.

Reserve Bank of Australia

RBA interest rates decision August 2026: Cash rate held at 4.35 per cent

RBA leaves rates on hold; signals inflation still ’too high’ and further hikes possible — as it happened

Do I care?

A further 25bp hike adds roughly $80/month on a $600k loan. Check whether you have three months of repayments in reserve.

Refinancing comparisons at current rates are worth running before the next potential hike; canstar.com.au has a live comparison tool.

If you have a variable-rate mortgage or are about to sign one, the next two months of data matter more than today’s decision.

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