Mortgages & Rates · July 2026

Three rate rises this year have pushed variable repayments to decade highs

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Probably worth doing something about

Directly affects every Australian with a variable-rate mortgage or plan to borrow. The RBA has raised three times in 2026 to 4.35%; the August meeting is the next decision window.

In a nutshell: The RBA raised the cash rate three times in 2026 — in February, March and May — returning it to 4.35%, partly reversing last year’s three cuts. The driver is a global energy shock tied to the Middle East conflict, which has pushed inflation above target. The board held in June but did not close off further hikes. Big four banks are split; three of four forecast the first cuts in mid-2027.

Spin Unspin

What they’re saying

Reflects consensus of big-four bank economists; framing is direct but not alarmist — the underlying data supports it.

Justification for maintaining hawkish stance; implicitly signals that borrower pain is not yet sufficient to warrant cutting.

Finder, Canstar and Trading Economics all independently confirm the rate trajectory and 4.35% current rate.

Interest Rate Forecast & Predictions For 2026 | Canstar

Expert RBA Cash Rate Predictions: July 2026 Insights | Finder

Do I care?

Use an online comparison tool to model repayments at 4.60% (one more hike) to stress-test your budget before August 11.

Compare variable and fixed options now; the August meeting is the next inflection point.

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