What tomorrow’s RBA statement means if you hold a variable-rate mortgage

Variable-rate mortgage holders are directly exposed. Three hikes this year already added roughly $290/month to a $600k loan. Tomorrow’s statement language determines whether more pain is coming or whether refinancing into a lower rate makes sense.

In a nutshell: The cash rate has risen from 3.60% to 4.35% in three steps in 2026, and has sat at this 12-year high since May. All four major banks forecast a hold tomorrow. The key question is whether Bullock’s post-decision statement removes or softens the explicit ’will hike further if required’ language from June. A softer statement is the best signal borrowers could receive that the cycle has peaked and eventual cuts are on the horizon.