Economy · August 2026

CPI data released this week will seal or shake the RBA hold call

Developing story — facts still moving. Check Reuters or ABC News for the latest.

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Probably worth doing something about

June-quarter CPI is the decisive input to the RBA’s 11 August decision. A surprise upward print could reopen the door to a fourth hike this year, directly lifting variable mortgage repayments.

In a nutshell: The June-quarter CPI from the ABS is due before the RBA meeting on 10–11 August and is described by economists as the single most decisive input into the board’s deliberations. The May CPI came in at 4.0%, down from 4.2% in April, but underlying trimmed-mean inflation is still 3.6% — above the 2–3% target. The RBA had forecast headline inflation peaking near 4.8% in the June quarter. All four major banks currently forecast a hold, but those forecasts were made before the latest CPI data.

Spin Unspin

What they’re saying

Broker analysis is practically helpful but has a commercial incentive to keep borrowers engaged with refinancing services.

Major bank holds are forecast, but all are conditional on the CPI print; a high reading would require these banks to revise publicly.

CPI release date and figures sourced from Integrated Finance Group, Finspo and Aussie.com.au citing ABS schedule. CPI figures themselves are ABS data.

RBA August 2026 Rate Decision: Hike or Hold? | IFG

RBA Interest Rate Tracker – Will the RBA increase interest rates again in 2026?

Do I care?

Use a rate comparison tool this week. Even a hold at 4.35% means the competitive market may offer better variable rates than your current lender is offering. Don’t wait for a cut.

Watch for the CPI release this week and the RBA announcement on 11 August.

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