Australian Economy · August 2026

RBA meets 10–11 August with another rate rise still on the table

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Probably worth doing something about

Directly affects every mortgage holder, renter and property buyer in Australia. Three rises already in 2026; next decision is two weeks away.

In a nutshell: The RBA has raised the cash rate three times in 2026 to 4.35%, driven by the global energy price shock from the Iran war. It held at the June meeting but signalled further tightening remains possible. The next decision is 11 August. Core inflation (trimmed mean) rose to 3.6% in May — still well above the 2–3% target. Big four bank economists are split on whether a fourth hike comes this year or rates hold until 2027 cuts begin.

Spin Unspin

What they’re saying

The board explicitly left the door open; it did not signal a pause is permanent. Underlying inflation is still accelerating even as headline eases on falling fuel costs.

Lenders are positioning customers for a long plateau; those hoping for 2026 relief should not count on it. Three of four big banks now say cuts may begin by mid-2027.

RBA schedule confirmed on rba.gov.au. Rate and inflation figures from Trading Economics sourcing RBA minutes. Canstar and Finder surveys of 40+ economists provide market consensus context.

Coming Up | RBA

Australia Interest Rate

Interest Rate Forecast & Predictions For 2026 | Canstar

Do I care?

Ask your lender now what a 25bp rise would add to monthly repayments. Consider whether fixing part of your loan makes sense at current fixed rates.

Property values fell 0.4% in June — largest monthly drop since December 2022. Factor ongoing rate uncertainty into any purchase decision before 11 August.

If you have a variable mortgage, model both scenarios — hold at 4.35% and a possible rise to 4.60% — before the 11 August announcement.

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