RBA Monetary Policy · next decision 11 August 2026

RBA holds at 4.35% in June but August hike remains live question

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Probably worth doing something about

Three rate rises already this year have added hundreds of dollars monthly to variable mortgage repayments. The August meeting is the next concrete decision point for every borrower in Australia.

In a nutshell: The RBA raised the cash rate three times in 2026 to 4.35%, driven by inflation running above the 2–3% target band and an energy price shock from the Middle East conflict. The board held rates at its June meeting but explicitly left further tightening on the table. RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said on 28 July that consumer confidence has weakened but economic activity remains resilient. The next decision is 11 August.

Spin Unspin

What they’re saying

Maintaining hawkish optionality; the big four banks are currently split on whether a further 2026 hike will occur.

Three of four big banks now forecast first cuts in mid-2027; none is calling relief before year-end.

RBA official statements, Finder survey of 40+ economists and Canstar analysis all confirm the 4.35% rate and the August meeting date.

Coming Up | RBA

Australia Interest Rate

Interest Rate Forecast & Predictions For 2026 | Canstar

Do I care?

Consider whether your buffer can absorb another 0.25% rise. Refinancing comparison is worth running now, before August 11.

The August decision is still 11 days away; the relevant data will emerge in the fortnight before it.

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