RBA meets today; hold at 4.35% expected, but statement language is what counts

The cash rate at 4.35% — a 12-year high — directly sets the floor for every variable-rate mortgage in Australia. The decision is announced tomorrow at 2:30pm AEST. A hold is fully priced in, but the accompanying statement and Bullock’s press conference will signal whether further hikes are still possible or whether the tightening cycle has effectively peaked.

In a nutshell: The RBA has held the cash rate at 4.35% since May 2026, following three consecutive 25bp hikes earlier this year from 3.60%. June CPI came in at 3.8% headline and 3.6% trimmed mean — below expectations — which has led all four major banks to forecast a hold at the 10–11 August meeting. August is an SMP meeting, meaning the Bank also publishes updated inflation and growth forecasts. The Governor holds a press conference at 3:30pm AEST tomorrow.