Australian Property · July 2026

Sydney and Melbourne home values down from peak as buyer conditions improve

○◔◑◕●

Good to know

Directly relevant to buyers, sellers, existing owners and investors weighing entry or exit in the current cycle.

In a nutshell: National dwelling prices fell 0.4% in June 2026 — the largest monthly decline since December 2022 — following a downwardly revised 0.3% fall in May, according to NAB’s Housing Monitor. Cotality data shows Sydney values are down 2.1% and Melbourne down 3.2% from their November 2025 peaks. New listings are running 7.7% above a year ago, vendor discounting has risen to a median of 3.6% in capital cities, and auction clearance rates have softened. Regional markets are holding up comparatively better.

Spin Unspin

What they’re saying

NAB frames this as a correction not a crash; the comparison to December 2022 positions it as consistent with past rate-tightening cycles. Important context: that prior dip was also followed by a strong recovery.

Lender and property industry commentary tends to find a silver lining; the flip side is that vendors expecting 2025 prices will be disappointed and some may choose not to sell.

NAB Housing Monitor (1 July) and Cotality data (via PropertyUpdate and RateMoney) are consistent. Figures are for advertised and transacted markets; lags apply.

NAB Housing Monitor July 2026

Everything you need to know about the state of Australia’s property markets in 20 charts – July 2026

Australian housing market update | July 2026

Do I care?

More listings and rising vendor discounting mean this is a better negotiating environment than 12 months ago. Pre-approval is still critical with rates uncertain.

Sydney and Melbourne values are still off their peaks. Track whether proposed negative gearing changes pass parliament before making exit decisions.

Whether you’re buying or selling, conditions are changing fast enough to warrant fresh advice rather than relying on last year’s assumptions.

Was this relevant?

Noted